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What is a theory of change and how do I create one?

A theory of change is a nonprofit’s conceptual roadmap that outlines how the organization plans to achieve its intended impact. It explains the cause-and-effect logic by which the organization converts its resources into desired social results. Creating a theory of change involves thoughtful, intentional work. Here are the steps to develop one:

  1. Identify the target population: Determine the underlying needs and key characteristics of the population you want to serve.

  2. Define specific activities: Outline the specific activities you believe your organization should offer to the target population, including the duration and frequency of these activities.

  3. Establish a cause-and-effect sequence: Describe the sequence of causes and effects through which your organization’s actions will lead to the desired impacts.

  4. Determine necessary resources: Identify the staff, skills, systems, and tools needed to implement your activities and achieve your goals.

  5. Consider external factors: Recognize the external context (e.g., regulatory environment, actions of other organizations) required to facilitate the desired effects.

To create a powerful theory of change, engage key stakeholders such as senior leaders, staff, board members, and the client/community in the development process. This ensures that your theory of change is relevant and effective for the communities you seek to impact. Seek input through various methods like sharing documents at town hall meetings, engaging stakeholders in roundtable discussions, or conducting one-on-one meetings. The goal is to refine your theory of change and ensure that your senior leaders and other key stakeholders understand and agree with its core elements.


Here’s an outline of a theory of change for a hypothetical nonprofit organization focused on improving literacy rates among children in underprivileged communities:


Target Population:

  • Underprivileged children aged 6-12 years old

  • Low-income families and communities with limited access to educational resources

Specific Activities:

  • Provide after-school tutoring programs in reading and writing

  • Organize workshops for parents to support their children’s literacy development

  • Distribute age-appropriate books and learning materials to children and families

  • Collaborate with local schools to enhance their literacy curriculum

Cause-and-Effect Sequence:

  • Increased access to educational resources leads to improved reading and writing skills among children

  • Parental involvement in children’s literacy development results in a supportive home environment for learning

  • Enhanced school curriculum and teacher training contribute to better literacy outcomes for students

  • Overall, these combined efforts lead to higher literacy rates among children in underprivileged communities

Necessary Resources:

  • Trained staff and volunteers for tutoring programs and workshops

  • Age-appropriate books and learning materials for distribution

  • Partnerships with local schools, community centers, and other organizations

  • Funding to support program implementation and expansion

External Factors:

  • Supportive regulatory environment for nonprofit organizations and educational initiatives

  • Collaboration with other organizations working towards similar goals

  • Community engagement and buy-in from local leaders, schools, and families

This outline serves as a starting point for developing a theory of change tailored to your organization’s specific mission and goals. Remember to engage key stakeholders in the process to ensure that your theory of change is relevant, effective, and well-supported.


Further reading:






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